Introduction

Figure 1. Climate change in the state of Kentucky is not a monolith

Figure 1. Climate change in the state of Kentucky is not a monolith

Climate hazards

Relative to other US states, Kentucky (Figure 1) seems like a pretty hazard-free place. Sure, every once and a while a tornado rolls through the hilly landscapes of the Bluegrass, or the shores of the Ohio flood a bit too high. But the state rarely (or never) sees major earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, wildfires, or other natural disasters of on the caliber of those that threaten most of the country (EPA 2016). Unfortunately, however, we live in a world of change. And Kentucky—just like everywhere—will inevitably have to face the most pressing hazard on our planet: climate change.

Interestingly, climate change in Kentucky has not been one consistent, global warming event. Kentuckians have experienced climate shifts differently based on where they live. In fact, Kentucky is one of the few states in the country that saw both heating and cooling in 1986-2016, as compared to 1901-1960 (Figure 2; USGCRP 2017). While most of northern and central KY heated between 0.5 and 1ºF, south/western KY only heated from 0.0 to 0.5ºF, and the southeastern Appalachian region cooled about 0.0 to 0.5ºF (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Difference between the average for present-day (1986–2016) and the average for the first half of the last century (1901–1960)

Figure 2. Difference between the average for present-day (1986–2016) and the average for the first half of the last century (1901–1960)

The EPA attributes this difference to sulfates in the atmosphere (2016). Sulfates are an aerosol, small solid particles suspended in the air that reflect sunlight, which lead to climate cooling events. Nonetheless, as these sulfates begin to leave the atmosphere, the entire state is predicted to warm.

Who believes in this stuff?

Despite this, and the realities of climate change across the world, many Kentucky citizens have yet to jump on board the climate change train. In fact, Kentucky is one of the most doubt-filled states when it comes to the changing climate. According to the 2019 Yale Climate Opinion Maps, Kentucky has the third lowest percentage of people in the entire United States who think global warming is happening (57%), has tied for first in lowest percentage of people who think global warming is mostly human caused (45%), and has the fifth lowest percentage (48%) of people who think global warming is affecting the weather (Marlon et al. 2019). Looking at climate maps, it makes a little more sense why some Kentuckians would be doubtful. People often conflate the weather they see with the climate of their area, and are not convinced that the globe is warming (Li et al. 2011). But for southeastern Kentuckians, their climate has been getting cooler. While their climate is in no way representative of the overall national or global climate, psychologists have found it more difficult to convince people of a trend they have not experienced (Li et al. 2011, Zanocco et al. 2018).

More than personal experience, however, politics plays a huge role in acceptance of climate change across the state. As the 2018 Partisan Climate Opinion Maps show, a huge disparity exists between Democratic and Republican beliefs regarding climate change. In Lexington, Kentucky, these differences are especially stark. Of Lexington’s congressional district, 82% of registered Democrats attribute global warming to human causes, while only 35% of Republicans do (Mildenberger et al. 2018).

Data

What the weather’s actually doing

To understand if or how the climate is changing in Lexington specifically, I downloaded weather data from NOAA that reliably extends as far back as 1888. These data consist of the maximum and minimum daily temperatures, precipitation, and snow recorded at the Lexington airport across 131 years. I analyzed the data in the online programing software R in order to make my analysis accessible and reproducible. In R, I graphed the different data categories (temperature and precipitation) according to the year, and ran a linear regression to determine if any significant trends exist. I found that maximum temperature and precipitation are significantly increasing, while snowfall is significantly decreasing (Figure 3). Nonetheless, the slopes of each regression are well under 1/100, meaning all the changes were significantly under 1 degree or 1 inch.

Figure 3 Climate trends by year (1888-2019) A. Total maximum temperature (ºF), p<0.001 B. Total minimum temperature (ºF), p>0.05 C. Total precipitation (in), p<0.001 D. Total snow (in) p<0.001

To see the data on an uncompressed scale, I also analyzed the data for only the month of May. May is a month of changing seasons and high precipitation, so I choice it as it had a high probability of reflecting the overall changes of the region’s climate. This trend of increased temperature and precipitation is consistent in May as well, but the slopes are higher values. (Figure 4). Other literature supports the conclusions of slight warming and increased precipitation (NCEI 2016, USGCRP 2017).

Figure 4 Climate trends by year for the month of May (1888-2019) A. Total maximum temperature in (ºF), p<0.05 B. Total minimum temperature (ºF), p>0.05 C. Total precipitation (in), p<0.001 D. Total snow (in) p<0.005

Discussion

Who cares?

So why should Kentuckian’s care that their May has been getting a little hotter? As a non-coastal city, Lexington and its surroundings do not face the threat of things like sea level rise. The Yale opinion maps show that only 40% of Lexingtonians think that global warming will harm them personally (Marlon et al. 2019). More impressively, political disparity is even seen from the same weather experience. While 61% of Democrats reported personally experiencing the effects of global warming, only 19% of Republicans from the same region did (Mildenberger et al. 2018). In this case, we know can assume many Democrats have misidentified a hot day or a serious rain storm for climate change, because the data show that change most likely would be imperceptible with time. This is an example of what psychologists call belief bias, or the recognition of new evidence if it supports your belief (McCrudden et al. 2017). Nonetheless, even a mildly shifting climate inevitably has an impact on any region, especially a region so reliant on farming and agriculture (Figure 4; USDA 2017). Kentucky’s agricultural economy, of course, relies on certain climatic conditions to function as usual.

Figure 5. Kentucky counties by total farmland; Fayette=50%-74.9%

Figure 5. Kentucky counties by total farmland; Fayette=50%-74.9%

Though farmers are often forced to be adaptable to the weather, they will most likely have a harder time adjusting to climate changes. For example, the beginning May’s planting season starts after the last frost, which will be harder to determine in the face of so much climatic uncertainty (Yankee Publishing 2017). With rising temperatures and increased precipitation, as well as the extreme variability of storms and weather due to climate change, the stability of agriculture as a staple of the Kentucky economy is threatened (Clark 2018). As a simple example, soybean production is slated to increase under these new conditions, while corn will likely decrease (Vincelli et al. 2011). Unfortunately, around 5000 farms produce soybeans in Kentucky, but over 7000 rely on corn (National Agricultural Statistics Service 2017). Those 7000 farmers will not be financially capable of adjusting to the changing climate within the “business as usual” scenario where climate change continues unabated (Wilson 2019).

Some solutions

Agriculture - Luckily, the economic infrastructure of Kentucky is poised to combat climate change and help farms and farmers get financial support, with the help of politicians. Kentucky, and the central Bluegrass in particular, already has a thriving local food movement (Kentucky Department of Agriculture 2019). The Kentucky Proud label which Agricultural Commissioner Quarles has been working to expand, emphasizes the importance of local grown food and small farms. Smaller farms tend to have a lesser environmental impact, and they tend to rely on the community for support (Kentucky Department of Agriculture 2019). As Quarles works to emphasize their products, he is trying to establish stability and security for the farmers, while also inadvertently working towards diminishing the impacts of climate change.

Coal - Unfortunately, other politicians in Kentucky are doing the opposite. Senate majority lead Mitch McConnel and Senator Andy Barr regularly oppose climate change solutions in Congress, largely to protect jobs in the coal and natural gas industries (Clark 2018). Jobs in coal are diminishing on their own, however, putting Kentucky in the perfect situation for a green job revolution (Cole 2017). With an increase in jobs outside of the coal sector and into renewables, Kentucky will be less reliant on coal for electricity—currently 75% of all power in the state comes from burning coal—and more reliant on a growing industry, not a shrinking one (U.S. Energy Information Administration 2019).

My Old Kentucky Home

The Kentucky economy needs sustainable solutions and replacements to its current form. Nonetheless, climate change threatens more than the economy. The decrease in corn production will mean a harder time producing that good ol’ Kentucky Bourbon. The impact of rain and heat on horse farms, could damage the central Kentucky attraction, and Derby Day! God forbid, but the rising heat levels very well might negatively affect the famous May day sometime within the next hundred years. So, although environmental issues are not the main focus of the average Kentuckian, their culture and their jobs, even the food they eat are at risk because of climate change. Soon the sun will be shinning too bright on my Old Kentucky Home, and we need to make sure that we stop it as soon as possible.

References

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USDA. 2017. County Profile: Fayette County Kentucky. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2017/Online_Resources/County_Profiles/Kentucky/cp21067.pdf.

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